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		<title> - Latest Popular Stories, Instablogs Community  by Salmanspeaks</title>
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		Fri, 31 Oct 2008 22:32:54 +0000		</lastBuildDate>
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				<title>Wall Street Rallies As Financials Soar</title>
									<link>http://salmanspeaks.instablogs.com/entry/wall-street-rallies-as-financials-soar/</link>
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				<dc:creator>Salman K</dc:creator>
								<description><![CDATA[<img src="" align="right" /><p>	Friday&#8217;s (31st October 2008)  Commentary on US markets.Covers major indices and stocks.

</p>]]></description>

				<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Friday&#8217;s (31st October 2008)  Commentary on US markets.Covers major indices and stocks.
</p>
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				<pubDate>Fri, 31 Oct 2008 22:32:54 +0000</pubDate>
				<category>Wall Street</category><category>US Stocks</category><category>Google</category><category>Yahoo</category>								
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				<title>STOP COMMUNALISING THE INDO-US NUCLEAR DEAL</title>
									<link>http://salmanspeaks.instablogs.com/entry/stop-communalising-the-indo-us-nuclear-deal/</link>
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				<dc:creator>Salman K</dc:creator>
								<description><![CDATA[<img src="" align="right" /><p>	Every attempt is being made by the political parties belonging to left , right and centre to gain a political mileage from the current US-India nuclear deal by stirring communal sentiments in the country. Recently, CPM politburo member, M. K...</p>]]></description>

				<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>Every attempt is being made by the political parties belonging to left , right and centre to gain a political mileage from the current US-India nuclear deal by stirring communal sentiments in the country. Recently, CPM politburo member, M. K Pandhe, warned Samajwadi Party, which had looked inclined to support the deal, of a Muslim backlash if it dropped its opposition to the agreement with the US. Also, Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mayawati followed the CPM’s crib by describing the Indo-US nuclear deal as ‘anti-Muslim’, and slammed the Samajwadi Party for trying to bail the Manmohan Singh government out by revising its stand on the issue. “The nuclear deal is anti-Muslim and the Samajwadi Party has taken a U-turn on the issue,” the UP chief minister told, in a clear attempt, like the CPM , to communalise the agreement.</p>
	<p>All these comments, remarks and political gimmicks are nothing but an attempt to communalise the nuclear deal. As usual, political parties have resorted to their vote bank politics where once again a fear psychosis is being created to consolidate and polarize the votes of the two major Indian communities viz. Hindus and Muslims. This is one art which was invented by imperial British in its heydays and has been perfected by the indigenous politicians post independence./Time and again Manmohan Singh and Montek Singh Ahluwalia have emphasised upon the benefits of the Nuclear Deal for India when seen in the background of the issue of &#8220;Energy Security&#8221;. We are at a disadvantageous to other developed and developing countries when it comes to energy security as we don&#8217;t have significant domestic reserves (we import 75 % of Crude Oil requirement), neither we have any favourable arrangement with the surplus countries. The need for energy cannot be overemphasised given the fact that we are the second fastest growing economy, with a GDP growth rate of 8-10%. to maintain such a growth rate we need to expand our energy and power infrastructure and reduce dependence upon fossil fuels like Crude Oil, Coal, wood etc. One of the possible and relative economical and cleaner option is Nuclear energy. But then again we don&#8217;t have much reserves when it comes to uranium. Thus, to keep our nuclear reactors running its imperative that we need to sign the nuclear deal.High energy cost is one of the biggest threat to the consistent growth of Indian economy and the energy issue is one which need to be immediately addressed. The deal allows India an access to the elite Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) without having being a signatory to the NPT (Nuclear Proliferation Treaty). For India it is a win-win situation, no doubt about it. Also, those Indian nuclear scientists who had earlier expressed reservations on the deal have now endorsed it. The deal has also got full support of India&#8217;s ex president and &#8220;missile man&#8221; A.P.J Kalam.</p>
	<p>Moreover, If the political parties are under impression that they will be able to rally muslim support by playing the nuclear card then they are grossly mistaken.A muslim guy and girl is as much interested in becoming a part of India&#8217;s 10% growth story as their Hindu, Sikh, Christian or Parsi brethren. As has happened in the past, muslims are once again being falsely stereotyped as having secret extraterritorial loyalties. Such typecasting only hurt the sentiments of the community which has fought along with other social groups to liberate India from foreign rule and exploitation. An ordinary muslim guy is more interested in earning his daily bread and butter rather than worrying about the developments in Iran, Israel or in knowing the technicalities of US Hyde act. The stand of Indian muslim is very clear- they endorse everything which is in favour of India and doesn&#8217;t threatens their peaceful existence.</p>
	<p>Personally, I used to have profound respect for Mr. Karat&#8217;s party, for they are the lone intellectual and critical voice in Indian politics. But the way, the Indian Left has conducted itself on the issue of nuclear deal has even put an ardent supporter of leftist philosophy to shame. Instead of assuming the responsibility of having failed to convince the Indian middle class of fallouts of Nuclear Deal, IAEA safeguards and US Hyde act issues, Left has resorted to a worst brand of politics which till now characterised the other two major national parties and the regional parties of the hindi heartland. The left&#8217;s decision of embarrassing the Indian government before the crucial G-8 meeting by withdrawing the support may prove out to be suicidal. The party&#8217;s stand has sowed the suspicion of cross border loyalties and some of the national newspapers have even gone into the extent of blatantly calling them as &#8221; anti nationals&#8221;. Though I would refrain from calling such names, I will certainly request Mr.Prakash Karat, Mr. Sitaram Yechuri, Mr D. Raja and company to get their acts right.
</p>
]]></content:encoded>
				<pubDate>Fri, 04 Jul 2008 15:02:48 +0000</pubDate>
				<category>India</category><category>Nuclear Deal</category><category>Communalisation</category><category>Hate Politics</category>								
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				<title>US Dollar: Is it time to go long?</title>
									<link>http://salmanspeaks.instablogs.com/entry/us-dollar-is-it-time-to-go-long/</link>
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				<dc:creator>Salman K</dc:creator>
								<description><![CDATA[<img src="" align="right" /><p>	A very detailed analysis of the currency market. Describes in detail the reasons why Dollar may post a decent comeback after months of being beaten down.

</p>]]></description>

				<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p>A very detailed analysis of the currency market. Describes in detail the reasons why Dollar may post a decent comeback after months of being beaten down.
</p>
]]></content:encoded>
				<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jun 2008 15:05:23 +0000</pubDate>
				<category>Dollar</category><category>US</category><category>Retail Sales</category><category>Payroll Data</category>								
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						<item>
				<title>GLOBAL INFLATIONARY PRESSURES: NO END IN SIGHT</title>
									<link>http://salmanspeaks.instablogs.com/entry/global-inflationary-pressures-no-end-in-sight/</link>
					<guid isPermaLink="true">http://salmanspeaks.instablogs.com/entry/global-inflationary-pressures-no-end-in-sight/</guid>
				
				<dc:creator>Salman K</dc:creator>
								<description><![CDATA[<img src="http://www.instablogsimages.com/images/2008/06/17/mb_inflation_mkUEi_17777.jpg" align="right" /><p>	
Inflationary pressures, coming at a time when there are palpable signs of economic slowdown has been spooking the Governments, policymakers and financial authrities worldwide. Globally, prices of commodities like Crude Oil and Wheat have...</p>]]></description>

				<content:encoded><![CDATA[	<p><img src="http://www.instablogsimages.com/images/2008/06/17/inflation_mkUEi_17777.jpg" alt="inflation_mkUEi_17777"/><strong></strong><strong><br />
<!--more--><!--more-->Inflationary pressures, coming at a time when there are palpable signs of economic slowdown has been spooking the Governments, policymakers and financial authrities worldwide. Globally, prices of commodities like Crude Oil and Wheat have skyrocketed in last one year or so. Policymakers have been especially finding themselves helpless in present situation due to the &#8220;global&#8221; nature of the current inflation. Central Bankers are also in a fix as given the slowdown in economic activity, they wont be able to fight the inflation the way Volcker did by aggresively rasing the interest rates back in 1970&#8217;s. Stagflation is extremely difficult for conventional policy instruments to deal with, since the attempt to deal with any one of the problems tends to exacerbate the other.Things are pretty difficult this time as, it is the prices of Crude Oil, which is supposed to have a ripple effect on prices of almost everything which conerns our life,is seen as stoking the inflation. The spike in oil prices, which hit $138 per barrel in recent days, has pushed up fertilizer prices, as well as the cost of trucking food from farms to local markets and shipping it abroad. Then there is climate change. Harvests have been seriously disrupted by freak weather, including prolonged droughts in Australia and southern Africa, floods in West Africa, and this past winter&#8217;s deep frost in China and record-breaking warmth in northern Europe. The push to produce biofuels as an alternative to hydrocarbons is further straining food supplies, especially in the U.S., where generous subsidies for ethanol have lured thousands of farmers away from growing crops for food. Not only those countries who are importing Crude Oil but the Oil producers like Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Russia are also witnessing price pressures as their economies are flushed with money coming from Crude Oil sales. Recently, US President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice even went on to the extent of blaming the rising middle class (and their consumption) of China and India as the main reason behind the rising commodity prices.</p>
	<p>Price pressures across the world are reaching levels that may soon threaten economic, political and social stability. Inflation rates have reached: Venezuela (22%), Vietnam (21%), Latvia (18%), Qatar (17%), Pakistan (17%), Egypt (16%) Bulgaria (15%), The Emirates (11%), Estonia (11%), Turkey (9.7%), Indonesia (9%) Saudi Arabia (9.6%), Argentina (8.9%), Romania (8.6%), China (8.5%), Philippines (8.3%), India (8.24%), Eurozone (3.6%), US (3.9%).Food prices have doubled in three years, according to the World Bank, sparking riots in Egypt and Haiti and in many African nations. Brazil, Vietnam, India and Egypt have all imposed food export restrictions which is only expected to aggravate problems further. Rising food prices threaten a surge in violent protests across the world, the Red Cross has warned.</p>
	<p>Talking of India, rise in prices has brought a flurry of problems for the current UPA government. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Finance Minister Chidambram, who are credited with initiating the reforms that led to opening of economy are under severe pressure emanating from price rise. Rising Crude Oil prices and depreciation of local currency (Rupee against Dollar) has finally forced the government to take bold step, latest being the substantial hiking of Fuel prices (Petrol, Diesel, LPG). Though the step is expected to check some of the losses of downstream oil companies (primarliy PSUs), experts are unanimous that the move will go a long way in pushing up the headline inflation numbers. Soon after the hike was announced, Petroleum Secretary MS Srinivasan said the increase in fuel prices would raise inflation by 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points. &#8220;Assuming the base inflation for the week ended June 7 to be around 7.8 per cent, we are looking at a WPI inflation number of 8.5-9 per cent over the next few weeks. Factoring in the probable revisions by around 40 basis points to the provisional inflation numbers, the actual inflation level is likely to be over 9.5 per cent,&#8221; said Saugata Bhattacharya, vice-president (business and economic research), Axis Bank. Crisil&#8217;s Principal Economist Dharmakirti Joshi expects the WPI to go up by 51 basis points (bps)as a direct effect of the price hike. Lehman Brothers&#8217; India economist Sonal Verma also said that inflation rate could touch 9.5 per cent for the week ended June 7. &#8220;A lower base last year will further add to the inflation rate,&#8221; she added. Inflation rate stood at 4.28 per cent for the week ended June 9, 2007. Lehman Brothers has also revised its annual inflation estimate for 2008-09 to 8.5 per cent from the earlier forecast of 8.2 per cent. Rajeev Malik of JP Morgan Chase Bank  feels that the headline inflation is likely to go upto 9.5-10%. </p>
	<p>RBI in an attempt to take control of the situation, has taken a very hawkish stance when it comes to policy interest rate. Trading in futures of some essential commodities has also been banned by Finance Ministry though the merit of such a move has been questioned. </p>
	<p>No doubt, due to raging inflation, Indian equity markets have lost favour with FIIs ( commodities based economies like Russia and Brazil have emerged as hot destination). Brazil is up 9% and Russia is up 7% since early December, while India (Nifty/Sensex) is down 21% and China is down 31%. India imports 70% of total domestic Crude Oil consumption and hence higher Crude Oil prices coupled with a falling rupee/inflation has made the economy  vulnerable. Corporate profits have come under pressure as input costs have risen. Higher inflation is also putting pressure on consumers’ disposable income and has thus brought down the consumption levels.IT companies, who were earlier sulking due to rupee appreciation (it affected their profitability), have been lately booking fresh losses on their hedged position in forex market due to sudden depreciation in rupee&#8217;s value. However, analysts are still upbeat over the long term growth story of the Indian economy.</p>
	<p>Thus, the key to rein in current level of international inflation lies in taming the Crude Oil prices. Increasingly, a consensus has been emerging the world over that the current bubble formation in commodities is a fallout of Ben Bernanke&#8217;s aggreesive move of slashing interest rate to counter losses arising from subprime crisis. Histroy testifies to the fact that in recent times, a number of bubbleshave formed due to the actions of Central Bankers. The most striking example is the Housing Bubble of US,( that roughly began in 2001) that was a product of Alan Greenspan&#8217;s move of keeping interest rate low in order to counter the recently busted IT bubble (1995-2001). The bubble finally got pricked in 2005-2006, and the sector, which then went into a slump, is yet to recover from it. In earlier posts on the same blog, I have argued that any type of economic bubble is difficult to identify except in hindsight, after the crash. There are indications that we are soon going to see a coordinated intervention in the foreign exchange market by the leading Central Bankers of the world. Ben Bernanke has recently given indications that he has done with slashing of interest rate and may now think of raising the same. ECB&#8217;s Trichet has already made his mind to go ahead with raising the interest rate. Already, China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia are following tight monetary policy since last few months. Above all, economies like India, Malaysia, Indonesia and Taiwan have gone ahead with reducing the government subsiddies on petroleum products and have raised the prices of fuel to check the artificial demand of Crude Oil. What effect all these steps will have on the international Crude  Oil prices is something which remain an enigma atleast for some time to come.</strong>
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]]></content:encoded>
				<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jun 2008 14:57:21 +0000</pubDate>
				<category>Inflation</category><category>Stagflation</category><category>Crude Oil</category><category>India</category>								
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